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Are you over it yet? I am. It is not fun. It is not striking. It is a pain-in-the-butt. Above all, it is not what they say it is. I am talking about the general election. Those are my descriptions of it, and I would like to think that they are wholly accurate and widely shared. The media, however, have another and it is both omnipresent and inaccurate; they describe the current election as “the most volatile of recent times.” It is not. Except for a late leadership change by one of the major parties, this election is no more volatile than any other that I can remember. What is volatile are the polls, and even there the swing margins hover around the margin of error, and I have to wonder whether polls have any credibility at all despite the breathless and dramatic way they are teased and presented by television commentators. Yet another “shock poll” anyone? Fact is, most of the so-called volatility is a media beat up. A relieved media. Before Andrew Little was rolled, the media were confronted with what probably would be the most boring—and predictable—election ever. But, then came Jacinda, and the orgasmic-glee of the media was palpable. Whoever in the media coined the phrase The Jacinda Effect has a job for life. But that is all it is—a media beat-up, by desperate media. We deserve better. At the very least, we deserve not to be treated as idiots…as ratings. I am over it. But, before I go, I will stick my neck out. Fryday will make some predictions about this election. Obviously, some or all of them may not eventuate, but I don’t care. For this, the most boring (not volatile) election I have ever experienced, I need to live a little dangerously. My predictions are:

• National will win handsomely and become the government without the need for a collation partner.
• Labour will be ten seats short.
• New Zealand First will return to Parliament but only on the party vote.
• Winston Peters will not win the Northland electorate vote.
• Hone Harawira and Mana will return to Parliament when Hone wins Te Tai Tokerau.
• The Greens are gone.
• ACT has left the stage.
• Hamilton will still be Hamilton.